CSIS Report (Continued)
What has inspired me to devote so much of this blog to the CSIS Report is its ability to both understand the foolishness and error in the whole enterprise, and at the same time come to a conclusion that we should stay and help rebuild Iraq no matter what. As the bodies pile up in Baghdad, I do not know if I fully agree. But it lays out a case that cannot be dismissed. It is a moral case: we must live up to our responsibilities. Yet I wonder if it is a practical case: is there anything we can actually do militarily? Of course, “once things settle down”, we can assist refugees and assist rebuilding. But we could do that anyhow if we removed the troops tomorrow.
The full report spends a great deal of time considering public opinion polls in Iraq and how the Iraqi answers have changed over the years. In many ways, these polls provide a better view of the true dimensions of the tragedy than daily news reports. By 2007 only 26% of Iraqis felt safe in their neighborhoods, only 16% in Baghdad. In 2004 only 17% found it acceptable to attack U.S. forces, but 51% find it acceptable today, including nearly all Sunnis. Americans are seen as the leading cause of violence, particularly because of Coalition attacks on civilians. Yet with all this, most Iraqis do not want the Coalition forces out “just now”. Most hate us, but evidently fear what would happen without us.
The report mentions many wars: Shi’a versus Shi’a in the south, Shi’a versus Sunni, especially in Baghdad. Al Qaeda versus everyone else. Coalition forces versus everyone except for the Kurds. Kurds versus everyone else except for the Coalition. To this we should add special wars, such as the struggle for Mosul in the north in which the Sunnis seem to be driving out the Kurds, and that in Kirkuk in which the Kurds seem to be driving out non-Kurds.
The report concludes that it is Iraqi plans and Iraqi time tables that count now. We have become increasingly marginalized. The most important task for the Iraqis is creating an acceptable law dividing up the oil resource. Solving this problem “could easily take until 2009″. In any event, we must be prepared for the long haul with or without troop withdrawal.
